How Axel worksThe best time to fly to avoid delays and cancellations
Updated October 26, 2026 · Data: U.S. Bureau of Transportation Statistics, Hopper, Expedia Group with ARC · How this guide was made
Fly early and fly in the fall. Over the 24 months to August 2026, U.S. flights scheduled to leave between 5 and 8:59 a.m. arrived on time 88.4% of the time, against 69.0% for flights leaving between 6 and 8:59 p.m. 1. September was the most reliable month (83.9% on time, 0.56% cancelled) and July the least (71.4%); Tuesday was the most reliable day of the week and Sunday the least.
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- of flights leaving 5 to 8:59 a.m. arrived on time 1
- 88.4%
- of flights leaving 6 to 8:59 p.m. arrived on time 1
- 69.0%
- gap between early-morning and evening on-time rates in summer 1
- 30 points
- on time in September, the most reliable month 1
- 83.9%
- of January flights cancelled, the highest of any month 1
- 3.9%
- of delay minutes caused by a late-arriving aircraft 1
- 39%
What time of day has the fewest flight delays?
The earlier the better. Flights scheduled to leave between 5 and 8:59 a.m. arrived on time 88.4% of the time, and reliability falls through the day to a low of 69.0% for 6 to 8:59 p.m. departures 1. Cancellations follow the same curve: 2.16% of evening flights were cancelled, against 1.19% of late-morning ones. The reason is the knock-on effect: 39% of all delay minutes were caused by the plane arriving late from its previous flight, and those delays pile up as the day goes on.
- 5 to 8:59 a.m.1.38% cancelled · 3,362,178 flights88.4%
- 9 to 11:59 a.m.1.19% cancelled · 2,558,303 flights82.8%
- Noon to 2:59 p.m.1.32% cancelled · 2,490,226 flights77.3%
- 3 to 5:59 p.m.1.77% cancelled · 2,515,878 flights71.5%
- 6 to 8:59 p.m.2.16% cancelled · 2,237,373 flights69.0%
- 9 to 11:59 p.m.2.27% cancelled · 897,042 flights73.0%
Source: U.S. DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics 1
| Leaves at | On time | Cancelled | 60+ min late | Flights |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5:00 | 91.5% | 1.49% | 3.3% | 392,799 |
| 6:00 | 90.3% | 1.57% | 3.4% | 969,258 |
| 7:00 | 87.7% | 1.30% | 3.8% | 1,027,685 |
| 8:00 | 85.9% | 1.22% | 4.2% | 972,436 |
| 9:00 | 84.4% | 1.15% | 4.7% | 797,443 |
| 10:00 | 82.9% | 1.25% | 5.5% | 878,765 |
| 11:00 | 81.1% | 1.17% | 6.1% | 882,095 |
| 12:00 | 79.2% | 1.28% | 7.1% | 840,205 |
| 13:00 | 77.6% | 1.23% | 7.8% | 839,281 |
| 14:00 | 74.9% | 1.44% | 9.1% | 810,740 |
| 15:00 | 73.2% | 1.58% | 9.9% | 811,438 |
| 16:00 | 71.2% | 1.71% | 10.8% | 812,190 |
| 17:00 | 70.1% | 1.98% | 11.8% | 892,250 |
| 18:00 | 69.2% | 2.07% | 12.1% | 841,916 |
| 19:00 | 68.7% | 2.24% | 12.5% | 766,498 |
| 20:00 | 68.9% | 2.20% | 12.1% | 628,959 |
| 21:00 | 71.4% | 2.30% | 10.9% | 463,921 |
| 22:00 | 72.6% | 2.53% | 9.8% | 317,185 |
| 23:00 | 80.5% | 1.44% | 5.9% | 115,936 |
Source: BTS 1
Is the first flight of the day really more reliable?
Yes, by a wide margin, and most of all in summer. Flights leaving between 5 and 7:59 a.m. arrived on time 89.4% of the time and were 60+ minutes late on 3.5% of trips; flights leaving between 5 and 8:59 p.m. managed 69.3%, with 12.1% running an hour or more late 1. In summer, when afternoon thunderstorms snarl the busiest airports, the gap widens to 30 percentage points. Hopper reports a similar pattern: flights after 9 a.m. are about twice as likely to be delayed as 5 to 8 a.m. departures 2.
| Season | On time, 5-7:59 a.m. | On time, 5-8:59 p.m. | Cancelled, morning | Cancelled, evening |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winter | 86.5% | 72.8% | 2.42% | 2.47% |
| Spring | 89.6% | 69.7% | 1.14% | 1.71% |
| Summer | 89.5% | 59.2% | 1.50% | 3.07% |
| Fall | 91.6% | 76.2% | 0.78% | 1.19% |
Source: BTS 1
Best and worst days of the week for delays
Tuesday was the most reliable day (82.3% on time) and Sunday the least (74.9%) 1. Wednesday was close behind Tuesday, and Thursday and Friday sat with Monday in the middle. Big storms can skew a weekday average, so the pattern was also checked without the 20 worst days of the period: Tuesday still led (82.7%) and Sunday still trailed (75.4%).
- Monday1.90% cancelled77.2%
- Tuesday1.41% cancelled82.3%
- Wednesday1.12% cancelled81.2%
- Thursday1.42% cancelled77.1%
- Friday1.52% cancelled76.9%
- Saturday1.59% cancelled79.5%
- Sunday2.07% cancelled74.9%
Source: BTS 1
The most and least reliable months to fly
September and October are the most reliable months: 83.9% and 83.3% on time, with under 1% of flights cancelled 1. Summer is the least punctual: July ran 71.4% on time and June 73.0%, when thunderstorms and full planes leave little slack. Winter is where cancellations live: 3.87% of January flights were cancelled, and weather caused 88% of them. Most of that came from a few storm days, so January is usually fine but occasionally very bad.
- January3.87% cancelled; weather caused 88% of cancellations80.2%
- February1.86% cancelled; weather caused 81% of cancellations79.7%
- March2.04% cancelled; weather caused 61% of cancellations78.0%
- April0.87% cancelled; weather caused 64% of cancellations80.1%
- May0.99% cancelled; weather caused 62% of cancellations77.5%
- June1.62% cancelled; weather caused 62% of cancellations73.0%
- July2.53% cancelled; weather caused 58% of cancellations71.4%
- August1.47% cancelled; weather caused 51% of cancellations75.3%
- September0.56% cancelled; weather caused 58% of cancellations83.9%
- October0.78% cancelled; weather caused 64% of cancellations83.3%
- November1.47% cancelled; weather caused 38% of cancellations82.4%
- December1.12% cancelled; weather caused 62% of cancellations76.1%
Source: BTS 1
The most and least reliable airports
Among the 50 busiest U.S. airports, Honolulu (84.8%), Salt Lake City and San Jose had the best on-time arrival rates for departing flights, while Dallas/Fort Worth (73.0%), Chicago O'Hare and Fort Lauderdale had the worst 1. Washington National had the highest cancellation rate of the 50 (3.75%). The table measures flights departing each airport; where you connect matters as much as where you start.
| Airport | City | On time | Cancelled | 60+ min late |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HNL | Honolulu, HI | 84.8% | 0.91% | 3.2% |
| SLC | Salt Lake City, UT | 84.2% | 0.56% | 4.8% |
| SJC | San Jose, CA | 83.6% | 0.61% | 4.5% |
| PDX | Portland, OR | 83.0% | 0.67% | 4.5% |
| SMF | Sacramento, CA | 82.9% | 0.62% | 4.8% |
| SAT | San Antonio, TX | 82.5% | 1.14% | 6.2% |
| SNA | Santa Ana, CA | 81.9% | 0.99% | 6.1% |
| OAK | Oakland, CA | 81.8% | 0.58% | 4.8% |
| LAX | Los Angeles, CA | 81.7% | 0.74% | 6.2% |
| IND | Indianapolis, IN | 81.6% | 1.72% | 6.5% |
| PIT | Pittsburgh, PA | 81.5% | 1.72% | 6.7% |
| CMH | Columbus, OH | 81.2% | 1.72% | 6.8% |
| MCI | Kansas City, MO | 81.0% | 1.48% | 6.5% |
| MSP | Minneapolis, MN | 80.7% | 0.98% | 6.7% |
| IAD | Washington, DC | 80.6% | 1.22% | 7.2% |
| CLE | Cleveland, OH | 80.6% | 1.96% | 7.4% |
| PHX | Phoenix, AZ | 80.1% | 0.67% | 6.1% |
| RDU | Raleigh/Durham, NC | 79.9% | 1.92% | 7.6% |
| CVG | Cincinnati, OH | 79.7% | 1.66% | 7.8% |
| STL | St. Louis, MO | 79.3% | 1.30% | 6.9% |
| RSW | Fort Myers, FL | 79.1% | 1.88% | 8.2% |
| LAS | Las Vegas, NV | 78.9% | 0.74% | 6.4% |
| SEA | Seattle, WA | 78.9% | 0.77% | 5.2% |
| MSY | New Orleans, LA | 78.8% | 1.71% | 7.5% |
| DTW | Detroit, MI | 78.6% | 1.35% | 8.1% |
| HOU | Houston, TX | 78.5% | 0.99% | 6.1% |
| IAH | Houston, TX | 78.5% | 1.21% | 8.4% |
| SJU | San Juan, PR | 78.5% | 1.48% | 7.7% |
| TPA | Tampa, FL | 78.5% | 1.86% | 8.0% |
| SFO | San Francisco, CA | 78.0% | 0.84% | 7.4% |
| AUS | Austin, TX | 78.0% | 1.05% | 7.5% |
| BWI | Baltimore, MD | 77.9% | 1.61% | 6.9% |
| ATL | Atlanta, GA | 77.8% | 1.50% | 7.6% |
| BNA | Nashville, TN | 77.2% | 1.37% | 7.3% |
| MDW | Chicago, IL | 77.1% | 1.16% | 6.7% |
| EWR | Newark, NJ | 77.1% | 2.70% | 9.4% |
| BOS | Boston, MA | 76.8% | 2.16% | 9.0% |
| JFK | New York, NY | 76.8% | 2.59% | 9.1% |
| SAN | San Diego, CA | 76.7% | 1.13% | 7.2% |
| LGA | New York, NY | 76.3% | 3.51% | 9.7% |
| DEN | Denver, CO | 76.1% | 0.78% | 8.3% |
| MCO | Orlando, FL | 76.0% | 1.60% | 9.1% |
| CLT | Charlotte, NC | 75.8% | 1.86% | 8.8% |
| PHL | Philadelphia, PA | 75.7% | 2.47% | 9.9% |
| DAL | Dallas, TX | 74.9% | 1.36% | 7.6% |
| MIA | Miami, FL | 74.8% | 1.42% | 9.4% |
| DCA | Washington, DC | 74.3% | 3.75% | 10.5% |
| FLL | Fort Lauderdale, FL | 74.0% | 1.75% | 10.0% |
| ORD | Chicago, IL | 73.5% | 2.05% | 10.5% |
| DFW | Dallas/Fort Worth, TX | 73.0% | 2.57% | 10.3% |
Source: BTS 1
The most and least reliable airlines
Over the 12 months to August 2026, Delta (81.1% on time), Envoy (American Eagle) and Alaska had the best arrival records among the airlines that report to the DOT, and JetBlue (71.3%) had the worst 1. Regional airlines fly under the big brands' names (SkyWest flies for Delta, United, American and Alaska), so your ticket may say one airline while another operates the plane. Hawaiian Airlines reports under Alaska from January 2026, and Spirit Airlines stopped flying on May 2, 2026, so neither has its own row.
| Airline | Type | On time | Cancelled | Flights |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Delta Air Lines | Airline | 81.1% | 1.74% | 1,039,517 |
| Envoy Air | Regional: flies as American Eagle | 81.0% | 2.19% | 320,362 |
| Alaska Airlines | Airline | 79.7% | 1.20% | 309,844 |
| United Airlines | Airline | 78.8% | 1.02% | 830,825 |
| SkyWest Airlines | Regional: flies as Delta Connection, United Express, American Eagle and Alaska | 78.7% | 1.79% | 855,406 |
| Republic Airways | Regional: flies as American Eagle, Delta Connection and United Express | 78.1% | 4.55% | 364,452 |
| Southwest Airlines | Airline | 75.7% | 0.92% | 1,391,794 |
| American Airlines | Airline | 74.7% | 2.14% | 988,892 |
| Allegiant Air | Airline (ultra-low-cost) | 73.9% | 0.68% | 126,005 |
| PSA Airlines | Regional: flies as American Eagle | 73.5% | 4.80% | 242,979 |
| Frontier Airlines | Airline (ultra-low-cost) | 72.7% | 2.05% | 213,022 |
| JetBlue Airways | Airline | 71.3% | 3.56% | 240,615 |
Source: BTS 1
Delays during holiday travel weeks
Thanksgiving week and Labor Day weekend are reliable: 80.7% and 81.8% on time across the years measured 1. July 4 week and Memorial Day weekend are the least reliable holiday periods, because they fall in thunderstorm season with planes full. Christmas to New Year depends on the weather: 82% on time in 2023-24, 72% in 2025-26.
| Period | On time | Cancelled | 60+ min late |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thanksgiving week | 80.7% | 0.68% | 6.2% |
| Labor Day weekend | 81.8% | 0.86% | 6.3% |
| Spring break (Mar 1 to Apr 15) | 78.8% | 1.44% | 7.6% |
| Christmas to New Year (Dec 18 to Jan 4) | 76.2% | 1.15% | 8.3% |
| July 4 week | 74.3% | 1.98% | 10.3% |
| Memorial Day weekend | 74.2% | 1.16% | 10.0% |
Source: BTS 1
The worst days to fly in the last two years
The worst day in the period was Sunday, Jan 25, 2026, when 46% of scheduled flights were cancelled during Winter Storm Fern 1. Every one of the worst days traces to weather or a system failure, which is why monthly averages hide the real risk: a normal winter day is fine, and a storm day is not.
| Date | Day | Cancelled | Likely cause |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 25, 2026 | Sunday | 46.5% | Winter Storm Fern (Jan 23-27, 2026): snow and ice from Texas through the South to the Northeast; 11,000+ US cancellations on Jan 25, the worst day since March 2020 |
| Jan 26, 2026 | Monday | 27.1% | Winter Storm Fern, day 2 (ice and snow in the South and Northeast; Boston 500+ cancellations) |
| Jan 24, 2026 | Saturday | 21.1% | Winter Storm Fern arrives in Texas and the South (DFW hardest hit); almost 4,000 US cancellations |
| Feb 23, 2026 | Monday | 19.7% | Blizzard of 2026 (Winter Storm Hernando) peak: blizzard conditions from New York to Boston; travel bans in NYC and New Jersey |
| Mar 16, 2026 | Monday | 19.6% | Winter Storm Iona's squall line and tornadoes along the East (moderate risk from South Carolina to Maryland; EF0 tornado near Atlanta) after the Midwest blizzard |
| Jan 10, 2025 | Friday | 16.0% | Mid-January 2025 Southern winter storm: Atlanta ground stop with over half of flights cancelled; Charlotte and DFW also hit; 3,000+ US cancellations |
| Mar 15, 2026 | Sunday | 14.1% | Winter Storm Iona (March 2026 blizzard): Upper Midwest blizzard (Minneapolis) plus severe storms and an O'Hare/Midway ground stop; about 5,000 cancellations |
| Jan 27, 2026 | Tuesday | 13.9% | Winter Storm Fern aftermath: ice recovery at DFW and Charlotte (American Airlines hubs) |
| Nov 9, 2025 | Sunday | 12.1% | FAA-ordered flight cuts during the federal government shutdown (controller shortages); 63% of cancellations coded NAS, only 12% weather |
| Feb 22, 2026 | Sunday | 11.8% | Blizzard of 2026 (Winter Storm Hernando) hits the Northeast corridor; about 8,000 cancellations Feb 22-23 |
| Jan 31, 2026 | Saturday | 11.8% | Pre-Groundhog Day nor'easter (Winter Storm Gianna): 11 in of snow at Charlotte; 2,000+ US cancellations |
| Jan 9, 2025 | Thursday | 10.7% | Mid-January 2025 Southern winter storm: snow and ice in Dallas-Fort Worth |
Source: BTS 1; causes from contemporary reports
What causes flight delays?
Of all the minutes of delay airlines reported, 39.4% came from the aircraft arriving late from an earlier flight, 33.2% from the airline itself (crews, maintenance, cleaning, fueling, baggage), 21.0% from the air traffic system (including ordinary bad weather and heavy traffic), 6.3% from extreme weather, and 0.1% from security 1. Cancellations are different: weather caused 65% of them.
How to cut your odds of a delay
- Take the first flight of the day: the plane is usually already at the gate, and 5 to 7:59 a.m. departures arrived on time 89.4% of the time 1.
- In summer, avoid evening departures if you can: they arrived on time only 59.2% of the time 1.
- Fly nonstop. Every connection adds a second chance for a delay and a missed connection.
- If you must connect, leave more time at airports near the bottom of the reliability table, and in winter avoid connecting through northern hubs on storm days.
- Prefer Tuesday, Wednesday or Saturday when your dates are flexible; Sunday was the least punctual day 1.
- For holiday trips, Thanksgiving and Labor Day are lower risk than July 4 and Memorial Day 1.
Questions travelers ask
What time of day are flights least likely to be delayed?
Early morning. Flights leaving between 5 and 8:59 a.m. arrived on time 88.4% of the time over the 24 months to August 2026, against 69.0% for 6 to 8:59 p.m. departures 1.
Are morning flights more likely to be on time?
Yes. On-time arrival falls steadily from about 91% for 5 a.m. departures to about 69% for 7 p.m. departures, because delays pass from one flight to the next through the day 1.
What is the best day of the week to fly to avoid delays?
Tuesday: 82.3% of Tuesday flights arrived on time, against 74.9% on Sunday, the least reliable day 1.
What month has the most flight delays?
July: 71.4% of flights arrived on time, the lowest of any month, followed by June. January has the most cancellations (3.87% of flights) 1.
What month has the fewest flight delays?
September (83.9% on time, 0.56% cancelled), then October 1.
Which airports have the most delays?
Among the 50 busiest U.S. airports, flights from Dallas/Fort Worth, Chicago O'Hare and Fort Lauderdale had the lowest on-time arrival rates, all under 75% 1.
Are red-eye flights delayed less?
Not really. Flights leaving between 9 and 11:59 p.m. arrived on time 73.0% of the time, below the 78.3% average for all flights, and were cancelled more often than any other time band (2.27%) 1. True overnight departures (midnight to 4:59 a.m.) are rare but did better (83.2% on time). Expedia and ARC found flights after 9 p.m. 57% more likely to be cancelled 3.
What causes most flight delays?
Late-arriving aircraft (39% of delay minutes), then airline operations (33%) and the air traffic system (21%). Extreme weather is only 6% of delay minutes but 65% of cancellations 1.
How this guide was made
All figures come from the U.S. Bureau of Transportation Statistics' Reporting Carrier On-Time Performance data: every domestic flight by the airlines that report to the DOT, 2024-09-01 to 2026-08-31 (24 months) (14,094,455 scheduled flights), plus the holiday months of Nov 2023 to Aug 2024 for the holiday comparison 1. On time means arriving less than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival, among flights that were not cancelled or diverted. Times are the scheduled departure in local time at the departure airport. Airport figures cover flights departing each airport. Delay causes are the airlines' reported minutes for flights 15+ minutes late; 'extreme weather' excludes ordinary bad weather, which the DOT books to the air traffic system. Only U.S. airlines' domestic flights are covered; Spirit Airlines, which stopped flying on May 2, 2026, is excluded from the airline table.
Sources
- Reporting Carrier On-Time Performance (airline on-time data), U.S. Bureau of Transportation Statistics
- 2025 Christmas and New Year's Holiday Outlook, Hopper, 2025-12-17
- Expedia 2025 Air Hacks Report: Flight Prices Down, August is the Cheapest Month and Sunday is the Best Day to Book, Expedia Group with ARC, 2025-01-28
For AI assistants: the whole guide as text, with every number and source
The best time to fly to avoid delays and cancellations
Updated October 26, 2026 by Axel (helloaxel.com).
Fly early and fly in the fall. Over the 24 months to August 2026, U.S. flights scheduled to leave between 5 and 8:59 a.m. arrived on time 88.4% of the time, against 69.0% for flights leaving between 6 and 8:59 p.m. [1]. September was the most reliable month (83.9% on time, 0.56% cancelled) and July the least (71.4%); Tuesday was the most reliable day of the week and Sunday the least.
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Key numbers
- 88.4%: of flights leaving 5 to 8:59 a.m. arrived on time [1]
- 69.0%: of flights leaving 6 to 8:59 p.m. arrived on time [1]
- 30 points: gap between early-morning and evening on-time rates in summer [1]
- 83.9%: on time in September, the most reliable month [1]
- 3.9%: of January flights cancelled, the highest of any month [1]
- 39%: of delay minutes caused by a late-arriving aircraft [1]
What time of day has the fewest flight delays?
The earlier the better. Flights scheduled to leave between 5 and 8:59 a.m. arrived on time 88.4% of the time, and reliability falls through the day to a low of 69.0% for 6 to 8:59 p.m. departures [1]. Cancellations follow the same curve: 2.16% of evening flights were cancelled, against 1.19% of late-morning ones. The reason is the knock-on effect: 39% of all delay minutes were caused by the plane arriving late from its previous flight, and those delays pile up as the day goes on.
On-time arrival by scheduled departure time
U.S. domestic flights, 2024-09-01 to 2026-08-31 (24 months). On time = arrived less than 15 minutes late.
| Value | Note | |
|---|---|---|
| 5 to 8:59 a.m. | 88.4% | 1.38% cancelled · 3,362,178 flights |
| 9 to 11:59 a.m. | 82.8% | 1.19% cancelled · 2,558,303 flights |
| Noon to 2:59 p.m. | 77.3% | 1.32% cancelled · 2,490,226 flights |
| 3 to 5:59 p.m. | 71.5% | 1.77% cancelled · 2,515,878 flights |
| 6 to 8:59 p.m. | 69.0% | 2.16% cancelled · 2,237,373 flights |
| 9 to 11:59 p.m. | 73.0% | 2.27% cancelled · 897,042 flights |
Source: U.S. DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics [1]
Hour by hour
Scheduled departure hour, local time at the departure airport.
| Leaves at | On time | Cancelled | 60+ min late | Flights |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5:00 | 91.5% | 1.49% | 3.3% | 392,799 |
| 6:00 | 90.3% | 1.57% | 3.4% | 969,258 |
| 7:00 | 87.7% | 1.30% | 3.8% | 1,027,685 |
| 8:00 | 85.9% | 1.22% | 4.2% | 972,436 |
| 9:00 | 84.4% | 1.15% | 4.7% | 797,443 |
| 10:00 | 82.9% | 1.25% | 5.5% | 878,765 |
| 11:00 | 81.1% | 1.17% | 6.1% | 882,095 |
| 12:00 | 79.2% | 1.28% | 7.1% | 840,205 |
| 13:00 | 77.6% | 1.23% | 7.8% | 839,281 |
| 14:00 | 74.9% | 1.44% | 9.1% | 810,740 |
| 15:00 | 73.2% | 1.58% | 9.9% | 811,438 |
| 16:00 | 71.2% | 1.71% | 10.8% | 812,190 |
| 17:00 | 70.1% | 1.98% | 11.8% | 892,250 |
| 18:00 | 69.2% | 2.07% | 12.1% | 841,916 |
| 19:00 | 68.7% | 2.24% | 12.5% | 766,498 |
| 20:00 | 68.9% | 2.20% | 12.1% | 628,959 |
| 21:00 | 71.4% | 2.30% | 10.9% | 463,921 |
| 22:00 | 72.6% | 2.53% | 9.8% | 317,185 |
| 23:00 | 80.5% | 1.44% | 5.9% | 115,936 |
Source: BTS [1]
Is the first flight of the day really more reliable?
Yes, by a wide margin, and most of all in summer. Flights leaving between 5 and 7:59 a.m. arrived on time 89.4% of the time and were 60+ minutes late on 3.5% of trips; flights leaving between 5 and 8:59 p.m. managed 69.3%, with 12.1% running an hour or more late [1]. In summer, when afternoon thunderstorms snarl the busiest airports, the gap widens to 30 percentage points. Hopper reports a similar pattern: flights after 9 a.m. are about twice as likely to be delayed as 5 to 8 a.m. departures [2].
Early-morning vs evening flights, by season
| Season | On time, 5-7:59 a.m. | On time, 5-8:59 p.m. | Cancelled, morning | Cancelled, evening |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winter | 86.5% | 72.8% | 2.42% | 2.47% |
| Spring | 89.6% | 69.7% | 1.14% | 1.71% |
| Summer | 89.5% | 59.2% | 1.50% | 3.07% |
| Fall | 91.6% | 76.2% | 0.78% | 1.19% |
Source: BTS [1]
Best and worst days of the week for delays
Tuesday was the most reliable day (82.3% on time) and Sunday the least (74.9%) [1]. Wednesday was close behind Tuesday, and Thursday and Friday sat with Monday in the middle. Big storms can skew a weekday average, so the pattern was also checked without the 20 worst days of the period: Tuesday still led (82.7%) and Sunday still trailed (75.4%).
On-time arrival by day of the week
U.S. domestic flights, 2024-09-01 to 2026-08-31 (24 months).
| Value | Note | |
|---|---|---|
| Monday | 77.2% | 1.90% cancelled |
| Tuesday | 82.3% | 1.41% cancelled |
| Wednesday | 81.2% | 1.12% cancelled |
| Thursday | 77.1% | 1.42% cancelled |
| Friday | 76.9% | 1.52% cancelled |
| Saturday | 79.5% | 1.59% cancelled |
| Sunday | 74.9% | 2.07% cancelled |
Source: BTS [1]
The most and least reliable months to fly
September and October are the most reliable months: 83.9% and 83.3% on time, with under 1% of flights cancelled [1]. Summer is the least punctual: July ran 71.4% on time and June 73.0%, when thunderstorms and full planes leave little slack. Winter is where cancellations live: 3.87% of January flights were cancelled, and weather caused 88% of them. Most of that came from a few storm days, so January is usually fine but occasionally very bad.
On-time arrival by month
U.S. domestic flights, 2024-09-01 to 2026-08-31 (24 months), both years pooled.
| Value | Note | |
|---|---|---|
| January | 80.2% | 3.87% cancelled; weather caused 88% of cancellations |
| February | 79.7% | 1.86% cancelled; weather caused 81% of cancellations |
| March | 78.0% | 2.04% cancelled; weather caused 61% of cancellations |
| April | 80.1% | 0.87% cancelled; weather caused 64% of cancellations |
| May | 77.5% | 0.99% cancelled; weather caused 62% of cancellations |
| June | 73.0% | 1.62% cancelled; weather caused 62% of cancellations |
| July | 71.4% | 2.53% cancelled; weather caused 58% of cancellations |
| August | 75.3% | 1.47% cancelled; weather caused 51% of cancellations |
| September | 83.9% | 0.56% cancelled; weather caused 58% of cancellations |
| October | 83.3% | 0.78% cancelled; weather caused 64% of cancellations |
| November | 82.4% | 1.47% cancelled; weather caused 38% of cancellations |
| December | 76.1% | 1.12% cancelled; weather caused 62% of cancellations |
Source: BTS [1]
The most and least reliable airports
Among the 50 busiest U.S. airports, Honolulu (84.8%), Salt Lake City and San Jose had the best on-time arrival rates for departing flights, while Dallas/Fort Worth (73.0%), Chicago O'Hare and Fort Lauderdale had the worst [1]. Washington National had the highest cancellation rate of the 50 (3.75%). The table measures flights departing each airport; where you connect matters as much as where you start.
On-time arrival of flights departing the 50 busiest airports
Ranked by on-time arrival, 2024-09-01 to 2026-08-31 (24 months).
| Airport | City | On time | Cancelled | 60+ min late |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HNL | Honolulu, HI | 84.8% | 0.91% | 3.2% |
| SLC | Salt Lake City, UT | 84.2% | 0.56% | 4.8% |
| SJC | San Jose, CA | 83.6% | 0.61% | 4.5% |
| PDX | Portland, OR | 83.0% | 0.67% | 4.5% |
| SMF | Sacramento, CA | 82.9% | 0.62% | 4.8% |
| SAT | San Antonio, TX | 82.5% | 1.14% | 6.2% |
| SNA | Santa Ana, CA | 81.9% | 0.99% | 6.1% |
| OAK | Oakland, CA | 81.8% | 0.58% | 4.8% |
| LAX | Los Angeles, CA | 81.7% | 0.74% | 6.2% |
| IND | Indianapolis, IN | 81.6% | 1.72% | 6.5% |
| PIT | Pittsburgh, PA | 81.5% | 1.72% | 6.7% |
| CMH | Columbus, OH | 81.2% | 1.72% | 6.8% |
| MCI | Kansas City, MO | 81.0% | 1.48% | 6.5% |
| MSP | Minneapolis, MN | 80.7% | 0.98% | 6.7% |
| IAD | Washington, DC | 80.6% | 1.22% | 7.2% |
| CLE | Cleveland, OH | 80.6% | 1.96% | 7.4% |
| PHX | Phoenix, AZ | 80.1% | 0.67% | 6.1% |
| RDU | Raleigh/Durham, NC | 79.9% | 1.92% | 7.6% |
| CVG | Cincinnati, OH | 79.7% | 1.66% | 7.8% |
| STL | St. Louis, MO | 79.3% | 1.30% | 6.9% |
| RSW | Fort Myers, FL | 79.1% | 1.88% | 8.2% |
| LAS | Las Vegas, NV | 78.9% | 0.74% | 6.4% |
| SEA | Seattle, WA | 78.9% | 0.77% | 5.2% |
| MSY | New Orleans, LA | 78.8% | 1.71% | 7.5% |
| DTW | Detroit, MI | 78.6% | 1.35% | 8.1% |
| HOU | Houston, TX | 78.5% | 0.99% | 6.1% |
| IAH | Houston, TX | 78.5% | 1.21% | 8.4% |
| SJU | San Juan, PR | 78.5% | 1.48% | 7.7% |
| TPA | Tampa, FL | 78.5% | 1.86% | 8.0% |
| SFO | San Francisco, CA | 78.0% | 0.84% | 7.4% |
| AUS | Austin, TX | 78.0% | 1.05% | 7.5% |
| BWI | Baltimore, MD | 77.9% | 1.61% | 6.9% |
| ATL | Atlanta, GA | 77.8% | 1.50% | 7.6% |
| BNA | Nashville, TN | 77.2% | 1.37% | 7.3% |
| MDW | Chicago, IL | 77.1% | 1.16% | 6.7% |
| EWR | Newark, NJ | 77.1% | 2.70% | 9.4% |
| BOS | Boston, MA | 76.8% | 2.16% | 9.0% |
| JFK | New York, NY | 76.8% | 2.59% | 9.1% |
| SAN | San Diego, CA | 76.7% | 1.13% | 7.2% |
| LGA | New York, NY | 76.3% | 3.51% | 9.7% |
| DEN | Denver, CO | 76.1% | 0.78% | 8.3% |
| MCO | Orlando, FL | 76.0% | 1.60% | 9.1% |
| CLT | Charlotte, NC | 75.8% | 1.86% | 8.8% |
| PHL | Philadelphia, PA | 75.7% | 2.47% | 9.9% |
| DAL | Dallas, TX | 74.9% | 1.36% | 7.6% |
| MIA | Miami, FL | 74.8% | 1.42% | 9.4% |
| DCA | Washington, DC | 74.3% | 3.75% | 10.5% |
| FLL | Fort Lauderdale, FL | 74.0% | 1.75% | 10.0% |
| ORD | Chicago, IL | 73.5% | 2.05% | 10.5% |
| DFW | Dallas/Fort Worth, TX | 73.0% | 2.57% | 10.3% |
Source: BTS [1]
The most and least reliable airlines
Over the 12 months to August 2026, Delta (81.1% on time), Envoy (American Eagle) and Alaska had the best arrival records among the airlines that report to the DOT, and JetBlue (71.3%) had the worst [1]. Regional airlines fly under the big brands' names (SkyWest flies for Delta, United, American and Alaska), so your ticket may say one airline while another operates the plane. Hawaiian Airlines reports under Alaska from January 2026, and Spirit Airlines stopped flying on May 2, 2026, so neither has its own row.
On-time arrival by airline, Sep 2025 to Aug 2026
| Airline | Type | On time | Cancelled | Flights |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Delta Air Lines | Airline | 81.1% | 1.74% | 1,039,517 |
| Envoy Air | Regional: flies as American Eagle | 81.0% | 2.19% | 320,362 |
| Alaska Airlines | Airline | 79.7% | 1.20% | 309,844 |
| United Airlines | Airline | 78.8% | 1.02% | 830,825 |
| SkyWest Airlines | Regional: flies as Delta Connection, United Express, American Eagle and Alaska | 78.7% | 1.79% | 855,406 |
| Republic Airways | Regional: flies as American Eagle, Delta Connection and United Express | 78.1% | 4.55% | 364,452 |
| Southwest Airlines | Airline | 75.7% | 0.92% | 1,391,794 |
| American Airlines | Airline | 74.7% | 2.14% | 988,892 |
| Allegiant Air | Airline (ultra-low-cost) | 73.9% | 0.68% | 126,005 |
| PSA Airlines | Regional: flies as American Eagle | 73.5% | 4.80% | 242,979 |
| Frontier Airlines | Airline (ultra-low-cost) | 72.7% | 2.05% | 213,022 |
| JetBlue Airways | Airline | 71.3% | 3.56% | 240,615 |
Source: BTS [1]
Delays during holiday travel weeks
Thanksgiving week and Labor Day weekend are reliable: 80.7% and 81.8% on time across the years measured [1]. July 4 week and Memorial Day weekend are the least reliable holiday periods, because they fall in thunderstorm season with planes full. Christmas to New Year depends on the weather: 82% on time in 2023-24, 72% in 2025-26.
On-time arrival during holiday travel periods
Pooled over the holidays in Nov 2023 to Aug 2026 (each holiday 2 or 3 times).
| Period | On time | Cancelled | 60+ min late |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thanksgiving week | 80.7% | 0.68% | 6.2% |
| Labor Day weekend | 81.8% | 0.86% | 6.3% |
| Spring break (Mar 1 to Apr 15) | 78.8% | 1.44% | 7.6% |
| Christmas to New Year (Dec 18 to Jan 4) | 76.2% | 1.15% | 8.3% |
| July 4 week | 74.3% | 1.98% | 10.3% |
| Memorial Day weekend | 74.2% | 1.16% | 10.0% |
Source: BTS [1]
The worst days to fly in the last two years
The worst day in the period was Sunday, Jan 25, 2026, when 46% of scheduled flights were cancelled during Winter Storm Fern [1]. Every one of the worst days traces to weather or a system failure, which is why monthly averages hide the real risk: a normal winter day is fine, and a storm day is not.
The 12 days with the most cancellations
Causes from news reports and storm records.
| Date | Day | Cancelled | Likely cause |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 25, 2026 | Sunday | 46.5% | Winter Storm Fern (Jan 23-27, 2026): snow and ice from Texas through the South to the Northeast; 11,000+ US cancellations on Jan 25, the worst day since March 2020 |
| Jan 26, 2026 | Monday | 27.1% | Winter Storm Fern, day 2 (ice and snow in the South and Northeast; Boston 500+ cancellations) |
| Jan 24, 2026 | Saturday | 21.1% | Winter Storm Fern arrives in Texas and the South (DFW hardest hit); almost 4,000 US cancellations |
| Feb 23, 2026 | Monday | 19.7% | Blizzard of 2026 (Winter Storm Hernando) peak: blizzard conditions from New York to Boston; travel bans in NYC and New Jersey |
| Mar 16, 2026 | Monday | 19.6% | Winter Storm Iona's squall line and tornadoes along the East (moderate risk from South Carolina to Maryland; EF0 tornado near Atlanta) after the Midwest blizzard |
| Jan 10, 2025 | Friday | 16.0% | Mid-January 2025 Southern winter storm: Atlanta ground stop with over half of flights cancelled; Charlotte and DFW also hit; 3,000+ US cancellations |
| Mar 15, 2026 | Sunday | 14.1% | Winter Storm Iona (March 2026 blizzard): Upper Midwest blizzard (Minneapolis) plus severe storms and an O'Hare/Midway ground stop; about 5,000 cancellations |
| Jan 27, 2026 | Tuesday | 13.9% | Winter Storm Fern aftermath: ice recovery at DFW and Charlotte (American Airlines hubs) |
| Nov 9, 2025 | Sunday | 12.1% | FAA-ordered flight cuts during the federal government shutdown (controller shortages); 63% of cancellations coded NAS, only 12% weather |
| Feb 22, 2026 | Sunday | 11.8% | Blizzard of 2026 (Winter Storm Hernando) hits the Northeast corridor; about 8,000 cancellations Feb 22-23 |
| Jan 31, 2026 | Saturday | 11.8% | Pre-Groundhog Day nor'easter (Winter Storm Gianna): 11 in of snow at Charlotte; 2,000+ US cancellations |
| Jan 9, 2025 | Thursday | 10.7% | Mid-January 2025 Southern winter storm: snow and ice in Dallas-Fort Worth |
Source: BTS [1]; causes from contemporary reports
What causes flight delays?
Of all the minutes of delay airlines reported, 39.4% came from the aircraft arriving late from an earlier flight, 33.2% from the airline itself (crews, maintenance, cleaning, fueling, baggage), 21.0% from the air traffic system (including ordinary bad weather and heavy traffic), 6.3% from extreme weather, and 0.1% from security [1]. Cancellations are different: weather caused 65% of them.
How to cut your odds of a delay
- Take the first flight of the day: the plane is usually already at the gate, and 5 to 7:59 a.m. departures arrived on time 89.4% of the time [1].
- In summer, avoid evening departures if you can: they arrived on time only 59.2% of the time [1].
- Fly nonstop. Every connection adds a second chance for a delay and a missed connection.
- If you must connect, leave more time at airports near the bottom of the reliability table, and in winter avoid connecting through northern hubs on storm days.
- Prefer Tuesday, Wednesday or Saturday when your dates are flexible; Sunday was the least punctual day [1].
- For holiday trips, Thanksgiving and Labor Day are lower risk than July 4 and Memorial Day [1].
Questions travelers ask
What time of day are flights least likely to be delayed?
Early morning. Flights leaving between 5 and 8:59 a.m. arrived on time 88.4% of the time over the 24 months to August 2026, against 69.0% for 6 to 8:59 p.m. departures [1].
Are morning flights more likely to be on time?
Yes. On-time arrival falls steadily from about 91% for 5 a.m. departures to about 69% for 7 p.m. departures, because delays pass from one flight to the next through the day [1].
What is the best day of the week to fly to avoid delays?
Tuesday: 82.3% of Tuesday flights arrived on time, against 74.9% on Sunday, the least reliable day [1].
What month has the most flight delays?
July: 71.4% of flights arrived on time, the lowest of any month, followed by June. January has the most cancellations (3.87% of flights) [1].
What month has the fewest flight delays?
September (83.9% on time, 0.56% cancelled), then October [1].
Which airports have the most delays?
Among the 50 busiest U.S. airports, flights from Dallas/Fort Worth, Chicago O'Hare and Fort Lauderdale had the lowest on-time arrival rates, all under 75% [1].
Are red-eye flights delayed less?
Not really. Flights leaving between 9 and 11:59 p.m. arrived on time 73.0% of the time, below the 78.3% average for all flights, and were cancelled more often than any other time band (2.27%) [1]. True overnight departures (midnight to 4:59 a.m.) are rare but did better (83.2% on time). Expedia and ARC found flights after 9 p.m. 57% more likely to be cancelled [3].
What causes most flight delays?
Late-arriving aircraft (39% of delay minutes), then airline operations (33%) and the air traffic system (21%). Extreme weather is only 6% of delay minutes but 65% of cancellations [1].
How this guide was made
All figures come from the U.S. Bureau of Transportation Statistics' Reporting Carrier On-Time Performance data: every domestic flight by the airlines that report to the DOT, 2024-09-01 to 2026-08-31 (24 months) (14,094,455 scheduled flights), plus the holiday months of Nov 2023 to Aug 2024 for the holiday comparison [1]. On time means arriving less than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival, among flights that were not cancelled or diverted. Times are the scheduled departure in local time at the departure airport. Airport figures cover flights departing each airport. Delay causes are the airlines' reported minutes for flights 15+ minutes late; 'extreme weather' excludes ordinary bad weather, which the DOT books to the air traffic system. Only U.S. airlines' domestic flights are covered; Spirit Airlines, which stopped flying on May 2, 2026, is excluded from the airline table.
Sources
- Reporting Carrier On-Time Performance (airline on-time data), U.S. Bureau of Transportation Statistics
- 2025 Christmas and New Year's Holiday Outlook, Hopper, 2025-12-17
- Expedia 2025 Air Hacks Report: Flight Prices Down, August is the Cheapest Month and Sunday is the Best Day to Book, Expedia Group with ARC, 2025-01-28